Giant Study Pinpoints Changes From Climate Warming

US: May 15, 2008

WASHINGTON - Human-generated climate change made flowers bloom sooner and autumn leaves fall later, turned some polar bears into cannibals and some birds into early breeders, a vast global study reported on Wednesday.

Hundreds of previous studies have noted these specific changes and most suggested a link to so-called anthropogenic global warming, but a new analysis published in the journal Nature correlated these earlier studies with changes in temperature, the study's lead author said. There was a close relationship between temperature shifts between 1970 and 2004 and changes in plants, animals and the physical world, such as the retreat of glaciers and the water level in desert lakes, the study found. "When you look at all of the glaciers and all of the snowpack and all of the birds laying eggs earlier and all of the plants having spring earlier across a continent, then we see we can detect anthropogenic signals," said Cynthia Rosenzweig of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies. They worked to rule out observed changes that could have been caused by other factors besides anthropogenic climate change. Building on research done to support findings reported in 2007 by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Rosenzweig and her co-authors brought together nearly 30,000 sets of data about biological and physical changes around the world, and then matched that up with a detailed database of global temperature change. PENGUINS, POLAR BEARS AND POLLEN "We overlay those two global datasets and then we do a spatial pattern analysis globally about the co-location of significant temperature trends and observed changes consistent with warming," Rosenzweig said in a telephone interview. "We see that those are strongly co-located." The link between human-caused global warming -- generated by industrial and vehicle emissions of carbon dioxide to produce a temperature-boosting greenhouse effect -- and observed biological and physical changes is very strong, she said. On a global scale, the correlation is more than 99 percent between the two factors; on a continental scale, she said, the correlation if very likely between 90 and 99 percent. Going continent by continent, here are some observed changes in the natural world attributable to climate change, according to the study: NORTH AMERICA: Earlier plant flowering of 89 species from American holly to sassafras; intraspecific predation, cannibalism and declining population of polar bears; earlier breeding and arrival dates of birds including robins and Canada geese. EUROPE: Glacier melting in the Alps; changes in 19 countries of leaf-unfolding and flowering of such plants as hazel, lilac, apple, linden and birch; early pollen release in the Netherlands; long-term changes in fish communities in Upper Rhone River. ASIA: Greater growth of Siberian pines in Mongolia; earlier break-up and thinning of river and lake ice in Mongolia; change in freeze depth of permafrost in Russia; earlier flowering of gingko in Japan. SOUTH AMERICA: Glacier wastage in Peru; melting Patagonia ice fields contributing to sea-level rise. AFRICA: Decreasing aquatic ecosystem productivity of Lake Tanganyika. AUSTRALIA: Early arrival of migratory birds including flycatchers and fantails; declining water levels in Western Victoria. ANTARCTICA: 50 percent decline in population of emperor penguins on Antarctic Peninsula; retreating glaciers. (Editing by David Wiessler)

Story by Deborah Zabarenko

REUTERS NEWS SERVICE

Climate Change Now

A huge new global study illustrates the extent to which climate change is demonstrably impacting wildlife, plants and the environment [ark | more\ark]. 30,000 sets of global data about biological and physical changes were matched with a detailed database of global temperature change. Changes in plants, animals and the physical world -- from plants blooming early to polar bears becoming cannibals -- were found to be closely correlated to changes in temperature. It is preposterous to be debating the existence of something so evident, and criminal to further delay action to avoid the worst impacts of a human-caused chaotic climate system.

Two other studies illustrate the degree to which humanity has overwhelmed the biosphere [search], altering fundamental biogeochemical processess performed by global ecosystems, required for all life including humans. Human use of nitrogen is overwhelming natural cycling [ark] of the nutrient, dramatically altering oceans, soils and the atmosphere. This is a direct result of agricultural intensification [search] by excessive use of fertilizers to feed unsustainable human populations.

A new study by WWF reveals that since 1970 one-third of global wildlife populations have been lost [ark]. Sadly while WWF writes great reports it often fails to act consistently, as it is the primary NGO supporter of continued ancient forest logging [search] which decimates primary natural habitats at the expense of wildlife. The existence and interactions of biodiversity are an important component of ecosystems that provide food, clean water, medicines and protection from natural hazards. Biodiversity loss, like climate change, is a symptom of a wider global ecological malaise whereby ecosystems are liquidated for short-term economic gain.

What is clear is that humanity is on track to so diminish, or even destroy, ecosystems that provide our own habitat -- threatening access to basic ecosystem services such as water, food and air. The combined surge of human population and rising expectations is so massive that very little can be done to avert catastrophe short of a revolutionary change in what it means to live and share on a finite world. Don't expect much from the rich nations, as Canada managed a paltry 1.9% decrease in emissions [ark]. The United States granted polar bears protection [news] from hunting, but announced no climate plans to protect their melting habitats. And the United Kingdom, where the industrial revolution began, can only make loans to those suffering from pollution [ark] resulting from global embrace of their devastating economic model.

Source: http://www.climateark.org/blog/2008/05/climate_change_now_3.asp

Facing a Water Crisis, California Sets a Strong Example

For the first time since 1991, California has declared that it's officially in a drought. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger made the announcement last week, perfectly timed to support a law that the state's Legislature has just passed to help curb its growing water crisis. Starting now, any new housing development plan in the state will have to prove an ample water supply for the next 20 years, or the plan will be vetoed.

Already, development plans in Riverside, San Luis Obispo, and Kern counties have either been denied or scrapped because the developers could not find adequate water supplies. And some of these plans have been for enormous developments -- one was to include 1,500 homes.

California has become an economic superpower in recent decades, with Silicon Valley, wine, other agricultural products, and of course, entertainment being chief industries in the state. As such, its population has skyrocketed: currently 38 million people reside in California, and experts project that number to increase nearly 20% by 2020, to 45 million.

Nevertheless, the state has wisely recognized that while economic and population growth are great for California, lacking sufficient water for that surplus population is bad for everyone. It will result in higher costs for fresh water supplies, a strained agricultural industry, and of course, a dehydrated population of old and new Californians alike.

California also recently approved plans to treat sewer water around Los Angeles to make it drinkable, an initiative that could provide up to 70 million additional gallons of water per day to the area.

And while homespun water conservation awareness campaigns, such as college students timing their showers and turning "speed bathing" into a kind of dormitory sport, are wonderful, we simply need major initiatives like the one in California to achieve immediate and widespread benefits.

[Image: Quality Stock]

Source: http://awearnessblog.com/2008/06/facing-a-water-crisis.php

Water Crisis

While the world's population tripled in the 20th century, the use of renewable water resources has grown six-fold. Within the next fifty years, the world population will increase by another 40 to 50 %. This population growth - coupled with industrialization and urbanization - will result in an increasing demand for water and will have serious consequences on the environment.

People lack drinking water and sanitation

Photo by ADMVB bokidiawe@yahoogroupes.fr

Already there is more waste water generated and dispersed today than at any other time in the history of our planet: more than one out of six people lack access to safe drinking water, namely 1.1 billion people, and more than two out of six lack adequate sanitation, namely 2.6 billion people (Estimation for 2002, by the WHO/UNICEF JMP, 2004). 3900 children die every day from water borne diseases (WHO 2004). One must know that these figures represent only people with very poor conditions. In reality, these figures should be much higher.

Water resources are becoming scarce

Agricultural crisis

Although food security has been significantly increased in the past thirty years, water withdrawals for irrigation represent 66 % of the total withdrawals and up to 90 % in arid regions, the other 34 % being used by domestic households (10 %), industry (20 %), or evaporated from reservoirs (4 %). (Source: Shiklomanov, 1999)

As the per capita use increases due to changes in lifestyle and as population increases as well, the proportion of water for human use is increasing. This, coupled with spatial and temporal variations in water availability, means that the water to produce food for human consumption, industrial processes and all the other uses is becoming scarce.

Environmental crisis

It is all the more critical that increased water use by humans does not only reduce the amount of water available for industrial and agricultural development but has a profound effect on aquatic ecosystems and their dependent species. Environmental balances are disturbed and cannot play their regulating role anymore. (See Water and Nature)

The concept of Water Stress

Source: WaterGAP 2.0 - December 1999

Water stress results from an imbalance between water use and water resources. The water stress indicator in this map measures the proportion of water withdrawal with respect to total renewable resources. It is a criticality ratio, which implies that water stress depends on the variability of resources. Water stress causes deterioration of fresh water resources in terms of quantity (aquifer over-exploitation, dry rivers, etc.) and quality (eutrophication, organic matter pollution, saline intrusion, etc.) The value of this criticality ratio that indicates high water stress is based on expert judgment and experience (Alcamo and others, 1999). It ranges between 20 % for basins with highly variable runoff and 60 % for temperate zone basins. In this map, we take an overall value of 40 % to indicate high water stress. We see that the situation is heterogeneous over the world.

An increase in tensions

As the resource is becoming scarce, tensions among different users may intensify, both at the national and international level. Over 260 river basins are shared by two or more countries. In the absence of strong institutions and agreements, changes within a basin can lead to transboundary tensions. When major projects proceed without regional collaboration, they can become a point of conflicts, heightening regional instability. The Parana La Plata, the Aral Sea, the Jordan and the Danube may serve as examples. Due to the pressure on the Aral Sea, half of its superficy has disappeared, representing 2/3 of its volume. 36 000 km² of marin grounds are now recovered by salt.

Towards a way to impove the situation

"There is a water crisis today. But the crisis is not about having too little water to satisfy our needs. It is a crisis of managing water so badly that billions of people - and the environment - suffer badly." World Water Vision Report

With the current state of affairs, correcting measures still can be taken to avoid the crisis to be worsening. There is a increasing awareness that our freshwater resources are limited and need to be protected both in terms of quantity and quality. This water challenge affects not only the water community, but also decision-makers and every human being. "Water is everybody's business" was one the the key messages of the 2^nd World Water Forum.

Saving water resources

Whatever the use of freshwater (agriculture, industry, domestic use), huge saving of water and improving of water management is possible. Almost everywhere, water is wasted, and as long as people are not facing water scarcity, they believe access to water is an obvious and natural thing. With urbanization and changes in lifestyle, water consumption is bound to increase. However, changes in food habits, for example, may reduce the problem, knowing that growing 1kg of potatoes requires only 100 litres of water, whereas 1 kg of beef requires 13 000 litres.

Improving drinking water supply

Water should be recognized as a great priority. One of the main objectives of the World Water Council is to increase awareness of the water issue. Decision-makers at all levels must be implicated. One of the Millenium Development Goals is to halve, by 2015, the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water and sanitation. To that aim, several measures should be taken:

• guarantee the right to water;
• decentralise the responsibility for water;
• develop know-how at the local level;
• increase and improve financing;
• evaluate and monitor water resources.

Improving transboundary cooperation

As far as transboundary conflicts are concerned, regional economic developement and cultural preservation can all be strengthened by states cooperating of water. Instead of a trend towards war, water management can be viewed as a trend towards cooperation and peace. Many initiatives are launched to avoid crises. Institutional commitments like in the Senegal River are created. In 2001, Unesco and Grenn Cross International have joined forces in response to the growing threat of conflicts linked to water. They launched the joint From Potential Conflicts to Co-Operation Potential programme to promote peace in the use of transboundary watercourses by addressing conflicts and fostering co-operation among states and stakeholders.

More about this program: www.gci.ch/en/programs/natural_02.htm

www.unesco.org/water/wwap/pccp

[Source: http://www.worldwatercouncil.org/index.php?id=25]